Taiwan Strait Relations
PLA military activity, US–Taiwan defense signals, Polymarket invasion odds, and assessed probability assessments across near- and long-term horizons.
Reports — Newest First
20 Jul 2026
Jul 14–20: Low-Tempo Patrol Week; Polymarket Before-2027 Odds Drop to 3.75%; BASELINE Tier Maintained
20 Jul 2026
Special Editorial — Reading the Strait: Warning Signs, Thresholds, and the Odds of Invasion
13 Jul 2026
Jul 8 Joint Readiness Patrol: 22 Sorties, 14 Crossings; JL-3 SLBM Pacific Test; Joint Sea-2026 Concludes
6 Jul 2026
Jul 4 Peak: 30 Sorties, 26 Median Crossings; CCG Institutionalizes East-Taiwan Patrol with Xiushan Rotation
29 Jun 2026
Taiwan Strait: Jun 22 Spike to 23 Sorties; Lai Urges Arms Sale Approval; Cable-Saboteur Sentenced
15 Jun 2026
Taiwan Strait: Jun 12 Spike to 14 Sorties; China Ends East-Coast Patrol After 198 Vessel Inspections; Rubio Softens Arms Sale Language
08 Jun 2026
Taiwan Strait: HIMARS Tranche Passes; May 26 Sortie Spike to 29; Arms Sale Still Paused Ahead of Xi Visit
25 May 2026
Taiwan Strait: Arms Pause Confirmed for Iran War; HIMARS Deadline 6 Days; May 23 Surge to 16 Sorties
18 May 2026
Taiwan Strait: Trump Holds Arms Deal 'In Abeyance' as Negotiating Chip; Declines Taiwan Defense Commitment
14 May 2026
Taiwan Strait: Summit Day 1 — Xi Warns of Collision; Taiwan Absent from US Readout; HIMARS Contingencies Active
11 May 2026
Taiwan Strait: NT$780B Defense Budget Passes; May 7 Surge to 22 Sorties; Summit Three Days Out
04 May 2026
Taiwan Strait: May 2 Sortie Spike to 29; Lai Reaches Eswatini; Defense Budget May 6 Talks
27 Apr 2026
Taiwan Strait: Apr 26 PLA Surge to 28 Sorties; Trump–Xi Summit Taiwan Concerns; Defense Budget Stalled
22 Apr 2026
Taiwan Strait: Lai Africa Trip Cancelled; Three Nations Deny Presidential Overflight; Apr 22 Patrols at 6 Sorties