Taiwan Strait Relations
PLA activity, CCG posture, US–Taiwan diplomatic signals, Polymarket invasion odds, and warning-tier assessments. Weekly cadence; mid-week supplements at WATCH tier and above.
Reports — Newest First
28 Sep 2026
Special Edition II — After Washington: Trump Says Xi "Understands"; Arms Offered to Beijing; $60B Tariff Lists; Sale Parked to Year-End
28 Sep 2026
Post-Summit ELEVATED Holds; Oct 1 National Day Watch; Sep 26 Low Tempo
25 Sep 2026
Special Edition — The Washington Summit: Xi Asks US to "Oppose" Independence; $14B Sale Still Frozen; ELEVATED Held
21 Sep 2026
Three JCRPs in September; Xi Lands in Washington; Sep 24 Summit in Three Days
14 Sep 2026
Two JCRPs in Four Days; ELEVATED Sustained; 10 Days to Summit
07 Sep 2026
Sep 5 Named Drill Triggers ELEVATED; CCG Rotation Institutionalised; 17 Days to Summit
31 Aug 2026
Drone Act NT$240B Passes; Sep 24 Summit 24 Days Out; WATCH Maintained
24 Aug 2026
Post-Aug 13 De-Escalation Holds Across Six Days; Sep 24 Summit Approaches; WATCH Maintained
17 Aug 2026
Aug 13: 18 Sorties, All 4 ADIZ Quadrants — New Post-JCRP Peak; WATCH Maintained
10 Aug 2026
Aug 8 Sortie Peak — 14 Aircraft, 11 Crossings; WATCH Maintained; Dec 2027 Odds Ease
04 Aug 2026
Aug 4 Sortie Spike: 6 Aircraft, Dual ADIZ Quadrant; S.5160 Gray-Zone Bill Introduced
03 Aug 2026
Jul 30 JCRP: 22 Sorties, All-Quadrant; CCG Chongming Joins Eastern Patrol; Tier Upgrades to WATCH
27 Jul 2026
Jul 21–27: First PLA Helicopter Median Crossing; 30-Sortie Surge; $14B Sale Paused for Iran War; BASELINE Maintained
20 Jul 2026
Jul 14–20: Low-Tempo Patrol Week; Polymarket Before-2027 Odds Drop to 3.75%; BASELINE Tier Maintained
20 Jul 2026
Special Editorial — Reading the Strait: Warning Signs, Thresholds, and the Odds of Invasion
13 Jul 2026
Jul 8 Joint Readiness Patrol: 22 Sorties, 14 Crossings; JL-3 SLBM Pacific Test; Joint Sea-2026 Concludes
06 Jul 2026
Jul 4 Peak: 30 Sorties, 26 Median Crossings; CCG Institutionalizes East-Taiwan Patrol with Xiushan Rotation