Taiwan Strait Relations

PLA military activity, US–Taiwan defense signals, Polymarket invasion odds, and assessed probability assessments across near- and long-term horizons.

Reports — Newest First

08 Jun 2026 Taiwan Strait: HIMARS Tranche Passes; May 26 Sortie Spike to 29; Arms Sale Still Paused Ahead of Xi Visit 25 May 2026 Taiwan Strait: Arms Pause Confirmed for Iran War; HIMARS Deadline 6 Days; May 23 Surge to 16 Sorties 18 May 2026 Taiwan Strait: Trump Holds Arms Deal 'In Abeyance' as Negotiating Chip; Declines Taiwan Defense Commitment 14 May 2026 Taiwan Strait: Summit Day 1 — Xi Warns of Collision; Taiwan Absent from US Readout; HIMARS Contingencies Active 11 May 2026 Taiwan Strait: NT$780B Defense Budget Passes; May 7 Surge to 22 Sorties; Summit Three Days Out 04 May 2026 Taiwan Strait: May 2 Sortie Spike to 29; Lai Reaches Eswatini; Defense Budget May 6 Talks 27 Apr 2026 Taiwan Strait: Apr 26 PLA Surge to 28 Sorties; Trump–Xi Summit Taiwan Concerns; Defense Budget Stalled 22 Apr 2026 Taiwan Strait: Lai Africa Trip Cancelled; Three Nations Deny Presidential Overflight; Apr 22 Patrols at 6 Sorties