Warning Tier

WATCH — maintained. Aug 13 produced the highest single-day sortie count since the Jul 30 JCRP (22 sorties) and the first unnamed all-4-quadrant event on record. No exercise designation issued; no live-fire NOTAM; rapid de-escalation Aug 14–15 and secondary pulse Aug 16 both consistent with prior post-JCRP pattern. 1-mo assessed probability (2–4%) remains below ELEVATED threshold (8–15%).

PLA Air and Naval Activity — Aug 12–17

The week produced one large spike (Aug 13) followed by partial de-escalation and a secondary pulse (Aug 16). The pattern replicates the post-JCRP weeks: mid-period surge, rapid fallback, secondary activity, then stand-down.

Aug 13 — weekly peak: 18 PLA aircraft sorties / 11 PLAN vessels / 3 official ships. 15 of 18 sorties crossed the median line, entering Taiwan's northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ — all 4 quadrants. New precedent: first unnamed (non-JCRP-designated) all-4-quadrant event. No exercise name issued by PLA.

Full daily series (ROC MND, Aug 12–17):

  • Aug 12 — 6 sorties / 8 PLAN vessels; 4/6 crossed median; central ADIZ
  • Aug 13 — 18 sorties / 11 PLAN / 3 official; 15/18 crossed median; N + C + SW + E ADIZ — weekly peak
  • Aug 14 — 9 sorties / 12 PLAN / 2 official; 6/9 crossed median; C + SW + E ADIZ
  • Aug 15 — 4 sorties / 8 PLAN / 1 official; 3/4 crossed median; N + C + E ADIZ
  • Aug 16 — 11 sorties / 8 PLAN / 2 official; 7/11 crossed median; N + C ADIZ — secondary pulse
  • Aug 17 — 1 sortie / 9 PLAN vessels — stand-down phase

Aug 13 surpasses the Aug 8 sortie peak (14 sorties, 11/14 crossing) and matches the Jul 30 JCRP's quadrant coverage while remaining below its sortie count (22). The absence of a JCRP designation despite all-4-quadrant coverage suggests the PLA is normalising that operational threshold for pressure events below named-exercise level.

CCG Formation East of Taiwan

No new positional reports received Aug 11–17. Xiushan (2305) last confirmed ~280 km east of Lanyu; Chongming (1401) last confirmed ~80 km NE of Xiushan. Taiwan CGA vessel Taipei maintaining shadow. Formation has been static since ~Jul 31. No inspection-zone declaration or shipping-closure NOTAM issued.

US–Taiwan Signals

No new developments Aug 11–17. $14B arms package (PAC-3, NASAMS, HIMARS, M109A7) remains paused pending Sep 24 Xi–Trump White House summit. HIMARS delivery (18 launchers, 20 ATACMS, 864 GMLRS) remains on track for Q4 2026 independently of the $14B decision. PORCUPINE Act (H.R.7146): no House floor vote date set.

Polymarket Odds

Invasion before Dec 31, 2026: 3.8% (eased from 4.0% at Aug 10; $39.7M traded)
Military clash before Dec 31, 2026: 7.1% ($3.2M traded — clash threshold lower than invasion)
Invasion before Jun 30, 2027: 10% (unchanged)

Odds eased slightly despite the Aug 13 spike, consistent with the absence of a named exercise and the pre-summit diplomatic freeze. Clash probability (7.1%) exceeds invasion probability (3.8%) by 3.3 pp, reflecting market pricing of limited/accidental engagements vs. a full amphibious assault.

Assessed Invasion Probability

Ranges unchanged from the Jul 20 editorial benchmark:

  • 1 month: 2–4% — no exercise trigger; WATCH tier; Sep 24 summit incentive; Polymarket 3.8%
  • 6 months: 5–7% — Sep 24 outcome unknown; arms sale resolution pending; HIMARS delivery imminent
  • 1 year: 10–13% — 2027 Party Congress; post-HIMARS posture; Polymarket Jun 2027 at 10%
  • 5 years: 18–24% — blockade/quarantine weighted 2–3× invasion; INDSR 2035 higher-risk horizon

Pattern Analysis — Unnamed 4-Quadrant Activity

Aug 13 establishes a new operational baseline: all-4-quadrant sortie events without a named exercise designation. Prior all-4-quadrant events were named (JCRP Jul 30; Jul 26 surge). The normalisation of 4-quadrant pressure below exercise threshold reduces the diagnostic value of ADIZ quadrant count as an escalation indicator. Tier upgrade criteria now weight: (1) exercise name issued; (2) live-fire NOTAM; (3) CCG inspection declaration; (4) Polymarket 1-mo market above 8%.

Upcoming Inflections

Sep 24 — Xi–Trump White House summit (arms package timing pivot)  ·  Q4 2026 — HIMARS delivery (18 launchers, 20 ATACMS, 864 GMLRS)  ·  No date — PORCUPINE Act House floor vote  ·  No date — KMT/TPP drone budget freeze (LY joint committee)  ·  No date — $14B arms package signature (contingent on Sep 24)