Warning Tier

WATCH — Maintained. Trigger: Jul 30 JCRP all-4-quadrant + Polymarket before-2027 above 2% BASELINE ceiling. No new escalatory trigger this week. Post-Aug 13 de-escalation is consistent with the established post-spike pattern.

PLA Activity — Aug 18–24 (ROC MND)

Rapid de-escalation from the Aug 13 single-day peak (18 sorties, all 4 ADIZ quadrants). Weekly total approximately 10 aircraft sorties — the lowest output since the Jul 30 JCRP week.

Aug 18: 5 sorties / 8 PLAN / 7 official; 3/5 crossed median; N+E ADIZ
Aug 19–21: Zero aircraft detected across three consecutive days; 7 PLAN / 6–7 official per day
Aug 22: 3 sorties / 8 PLAN / 7 official; 3/3 crossed median; N+SW ADIZ
Aug 23: Zero aircraft; 7 PLAN / 7 official
Aug 24: 2 sorties / 7 PLAN / 2 official (partial day)

Three consecutive zero-aircraft days (Aug 19–21) represent the longest such run since early July. The secondary pulse pattern (spike, rapid de-escalation, secondary micro-spike 7–10 days later) visible in prior weeks has not repeated at meaningful scale this cycle.

CCG Eastern Formation

Formation stable. Xiushan (2305) and Chongming (1401) continue east-of-Taiwan patrols. Xinhua and CGTN describe missions as "routine law enforcement." Taiwan CGA *Taipei* maintaining shadow tracking. No inspection-zone declaration or shipping-closure NOTAM issued. No positional change from prior report.

Diplomatic and Arms Status

Xi–Trump White House summit: Sep 24. Framed by analysts as a test of the May Beijing truce. Xi Jinping has urged the US to handle Taiwan arms sales with "utmost caution." The $14B package (PAC-3, NASAMS, HIMARS, M109A7) remains paused pending summit outcome; signing before arrival represents US leverage, not signing is "the tell." HIMARS deliveries remain on schedule Q4 2026. PAC-3 MSE deliveries underway.

$14B arms package: PAUSED — contingent on Sep 24 summit outcome. No change since May 2026 Beijing summit.

S.5160 (Duckworth-Blackburn gray-zone bill): No Senate floor action. PORCUPINE Act (H.R.7146): No House floor vote. Trump–Lai call remains deferred pending summit.

Polymarket Odds (as of Aug 23, 2026)

Before Jan 1, 2027: ~4% ($39.9M traded) — marginal uptick from 3.8% at Aug 17
Military clash before Dec 31, 2026: 7.1% ($3.2M traded)
Before Jun 30, 2027: 10% (unchanged)
Before Dec 31, 2027: ~12% (unchanged)

Assessed Invasion Probability

Unchanged from Jul 13 baseline. Weight quarantine/blockade 2–3× invasion within the 5-year figure.

1 month: 2–4% — de-escalation intact; no amphibious mobilisation signals
6 months: 5–7% — Sep 24 summit as near-term constraint; no PLA logistics surge
1 year: 10–13% — post-summit trajectory unclear; 2027 Party Congress timing
5 years: 18–24% — quarantine/blockade probability elevated within range

Next Structural Inflections

Xi–Trump White House Sep 24 · $14B arms package resumption (contingent) · HIMARS delivery Q4 2026 · PORCUPINE Act House floor vote (no date) · KMT/TPP drone budget freeze (LY joint committee) · 2027 Party Congress