Warning Tier

WATCH — maintained from week of Aug 3. No named exercise declared; no live-fire NOTAM issued despite Aug 8 spike. Rapid mid-week de-escalation prevents upgrade to ELEVATED.

PLA Air and Naval Activity — Aug 5–10

The week produced one standout sortie day (Aug 8) followed by swift de-escalation, replicating the pattern seen after the Jul 30 JCRP all-quadrant exercise.

Aug 8 — weekly peak: 14 PLA aircraft sorties, 6 PLAN vessels, 8 official ships. 11 of 14 sorties crossed the median line into Taiwan's northern and southwestern ADIZ. Highest sortie count of the post-JCRP de-escalation period; no exercise designation issued.

Full daily series (ROC MND, Aug 5–10):

  • Aug 5 — 5 sorties / 8 PLAN vessels
  • Aug 6 — 11 sorties / 6 PLAN vessels / 1 official ship
  • Aug 7 — 10 sorties / 6 PLAN vessels / 3 official ships; 6 of 10 crossed median line; central + SW ADIZ
  • Aug 8 — 14 sorties / 6 PLAN vessels / 8 official ships; 11 of 14 crossed median line; N + SW ADIZ
  • Aug 9 — 4 sorties / 6 PLAN vessels / 9 official ships; 2 of 4 crossed median line; N + SW ADIZ
  • Aug 10 — 1 sortie / 9 PLAN vessels / 11 official ships; SW ADIZ only — surveillance posture, not air pressure

The Aug 10 profile (minimal aircraft, elevated ship count) matches the post-JCRP Aug 4 day (6 sorties, dual ADIZ) followed by rapid stand-down. Interpretation: sustained maritime presence normalisation with episodic air-pressure spikes; neither spike has generated a named exercise declaration.

CCG Formation East of Taiwan

Formation stable. Xiushan (2305) at ~280 km east of Lanyu (Orchid Island); Chongming (1401) at ~80 km NE of Xiushan. Taiwan CGA patrol vessel Taipei maintaining shadow. No positional change detected Aug 5–10. CCG spokesperson Jiang Lue (Xinhua, Jul 31): "Since July, the Xiushan task force has continued to strengthen maritime control in the relevant waters."

US–Taiwan Signals

No new arms sale action this week. $14B package (PAC-3, NASAMS, HIMARS, M109A7) remains pending Trump signature. Post-May Beijing summit, Secretary of State Rubio affirmed US policy unchanged. The White House Xi–Trump summit (Sep 24) is the next critical decision point: whether Trump signs the package before or after Xi arrives determines its diplomatic valence.

PORCUPINE Act (H.R.7146): passed HFAC 45–0 May 2026; no House floor vote date set.

Polymarket Odds

Before Jan 1, 2027: 4% (unchanged)  |  Before Jun 30, 2027: 10%  |  Before Dec 31, 2027: 12% (eased from ~13.5% at Aug 3)

The Dec 2027 market's modest compression aligns with ODNI Mar 2026 assessment ("no current plan, no fixed timeline") and the pre-summit diplomatic freeze on the $14B package.

Assessed Invasion Probability

Ranges unchanged from the Jul 20 editorial assessment:

  • 1 month: 2–4% — no exercise trigger; WATCH tier; summit incentive active
  • 6 months: 5–7% — Sep 24 summit outcome unknown; arms sale resolution pending
  • 1 year: 10–13% — 2027 Party Congress; HIMARS delivery Q4 2026; budget cycle
  • 5 years: 18–24% — blockade/quarantine weighted 2–3× invasion within this figure; INDSR 2035 higher-risk horizon

Upcoming Inflections

Sep 24 — Xi–Trump White House summit (arms package timing pivot)  ·  Q4 2026 — HIMARS delivery (18 launchers, 20 ATACMS, 864 GMLRS)  ·  No date — PORCUPINE Act House floor vote  ·  No date — KMT/TPP drone budget freeze (LY joint committee)  ·  No date — Environment field criteria (Gold Card)