Warning Tier

WATCH — maintained. Trigger: Jul 30 JCRP all-4-quadrant; Polymarket before-2027 above 2% BASELINE ceiling. Contra-ELEVATED: no named exercise; no live-fire NOTAM; no announced exercise cycle. Mid-week supplement published per WATCH-tier cadence.

PLA Activity — Aug 3–4 (ROC MND)

Aug 4: 6 sorties / 7 PLAN vessels / 6 official ships — all 6 aircraft entered SW and eastern ADIZ (dual-quadrant). Source: ROC MND daily report, GlobalSecurity.org (taiwan-260804-roc-mnd01.htm).

Aug 3 (prior 24-hour period): 1 sortie / 7 PLAN / 1 crossing / SW ADIZ only. The six-fold daily uptick (1→6 sorties) combined with dual-quadrant ADIZ penetration (SW + East) is the first dual-quadrant pattern since the Jul 30 JCRP. The eastern component mirrors the CCG patrol vector.

6 official ships on Aug 4 is an elevated count. The ROC MND "official ships" category includes coast guard and government vessels distinct from PLAN warships; a count of 6 alongside 7 PLAN vessels is the highest combined figure in the Aug 3–4 window.

CCG Eastern Patrol — Unchanged

Formation composition unchanged from Aug 3: Xiushan (2305) at ~280 km east of Lanyu (Orchid Island, Taitung); Chongming (1401) ~80 km NE of Xiushan. Taiwan CGA patrol vessel Taipei shadowing both. No new positional change detected Aug 4 vs Aug 3. CCG spokesperson Jiang Lue (Xinhua, Jul 31): "Since July, the Xiushan task force has continued to strengthen maritime control in the relevant waters."

Legislative — S.5160 Gray-Zone Aggression Act (Jul 29)

Senators Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) introduced S.5160 — "Countering Gray-Zone Aggression by the People's Republic of China Act" — Jul 29, 2026. Provisions: mandates State Dept formulate Indo-Pacific gray-zone monitoring strategy; creates interagency counter-gray-zone task force; requires congressional reporting on PRC activities. Directly responsive to the CCG eastern patrol campaign. Covered by Taiwan News (Jul 30).

US Signaling — AIT Coast Guard Institutional Ties (Aug 3)

AIT publicly showcased deepening US-Taiwan coast guard institutional cooperation on Aug 3 — emphasizing shared SAR, typhoon response, IUU fishing, and narcotics missions. FAPA framed it as a deliberate counter-signal timed against the CCG eastern patrol. No new policy commitment; symbolic legitimation of Taiwan CGA presence in contested waters.

Polymarket

Before Jan 1, 2027: 4.0% — flat from Aug 3 reading. Before Dec 31, 2027: ~13.5%.

Probability Assessment

Unchanged from Aug 3 report:

  • 1 month: 2–4% — WATCH conditions, no exercise announced, Sep 24 summit incentive intact.
  • 6 months: 5–7%
  • 1 year: 10–13%
  • 5 years: 18–24% — quarantine/blockade weighted 2–3× outright invasion within this range.

All Other Items — Unchanged from Aug 3

$14B arms sale (PAC-3, NASAMS, HIMARS): paused pending Sep 24 Xi–Trump summit. PORCUPINE Act H.R.7146: no House floor vote. Trump–Lai call: deferred indefinitely. Taiwan drone budget freeze (KMT NT$44.2B + TPP NT$200M cut): no LY joint committee resolution. NT$780B special defense budget: passed May 8. ODNI Mar 2026: PRC lacks invasion plans. Taiwan allies: 12.

Next Inflections

Sep 24 Xi–Trump White House summit · HIMARS delivery Q4 2026 · PORCUPINE Act House floor vote (no date) · KMT/TPP drone budget (LY joint committee) · 2027 Party Congress.