PLA Activity — Jul 28–Aug 3

WEEK TOTAL: ~42+ sorties — down sharply from 103 the prior week. Jul 31 data not retrieved. Jul 30 named Joint Combat Readiness Patrol the single significant event.

Daily breakdown (Taiwan MND):

Date Sorties PLAN Official Median X ADIZ
Jul 28 1 7 — 1/1 SW
Jul 29 8 7 1 6/8 N, E
Jul 30 ★ 22 7 1 16/22 N, C, SW, E
Jul 31 — — — — not retrieved
Aug 1 5 10 — 5/5 SW, E
Aug 2 5 8 2 3/5 SW
Aug 3 1 7 — 1/1 SW

Jul 30 Joint Combat Readiness Patrol

MND press release #87164. Commenced 07:24 local. Aircraft confirmed: J-11, J-16, H-6 bomber, KJ-500 AEW. 22 sorties; 16/22 crossed median; entered all four ADIZ quadrants. Beijing designated the operation a routine JCRP — no "Joint Sword" or "Strait Thunder" branding. Rapid de-escalation followed: Aug 1–3 averaged 3.7 sorties/day.

Prior weekly JCRP reference: Jul 8, 2026 — 22 sorties, 14/22 crossings. Jul 30 replicated the sortie count with a higher crossing ratio (72% vs. 64%) and added J-11 to the confirmed type list.

CCG Eastern Patrol — Significant Change

CCGS Chongming (1401) joined the standing eastern patrol ~Jul 31/Aug 1. Formation now two-vessel: Xiushan (2305) + Chongming (1401). Position has migrated south: Xiushan now ~280 km east of Lanyu (Orchid Island, Taitung County), with Chongming ~80 km further northeast. Prior position: ~54 nm east of Hualien. Taiwan CGA deployed patrol ship Taipei to shadow.

US statement (Aug 2–3): State Department described CCG eastern patrols as "deeply destabilizing" and called on Beijing to "cease pressure and engage in meaningful dialogue" (Taipei Times; Focus Taiwan, Aug 3).

Prior status: Xiushan was confirmed as a permanent standing patrol following the Jul 4 vessel rotation. Addition of Chongming doubles formation size; southward repositioning shifts patrol coverage from Hualien approaches to Orchid Island / Bashi Channel corridor.

Arms Sales & Diplomatic Status

$14B package (PAC-3 MSE, NASAMS, HIMARS, M109A7): PAUSED — no change. Pause confirmed by Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao, May 22, 2026. No DSCA notification or executive action this week.

PORCUPINE Act (H.R.7146): No House floor vote scheduled. Senate S.1744 passed Dec 2025 (unchanged).

Xi–Trump White House Sep 24: Confirmed Jul 23 (Trump). No new developments this week. Trump–Lai call deferred indefinitely pending summit.

PRC Ethnic Unity Law (in effect Jul 1): No enforcement actions against Taiwan persons or organizations identified Jul 28–Aug 3.

Taiwan allies: 12. No switch.

HIMARS (18 launchers + ATACMS + GMLRS): Q4 2026 delivery track on schedule.

Taiwan drone budget: KMT freeze of NT$44.2B plan and TPP cut of NT$200M from NT$623M MOOE allocation — pending LY joint committee vote; no resolution this week.

Polymarket (approx. Aug 2, 2026)

Before Jan 1, 2027: 4.0% (~$39.3M volume) ↓ from 4.2%
Military clash before 2027: ~7% (~$3.1M volume, unchanged)
By Dec 31, 2027: ~12% ↓ from ~14.5%

Invasion Probability Assessment

1 month: 2–4% 6 months: 5–7% 1 year: 10–13% 5 years: 18–24%

1-month range revised upward to 2–4% (from 1–2%) to reflect JCRP activity and the Polymarket before-2027 proxy at 4%. Jul 30 JCRP crossed the BASELINE 2% ceiling. Rapid post-JCRP de-escalation, absence of a named exercise cycle, and Beijing's pre-summit incentive structure argue against ELEVATED. 6mo / 1yr / 5yr ranges unchanged.

Warning Tier

Current tier: WATCH — upgraded from BASELINE.
Trigger conditions met: Jul 30 JCRP (named, all-4-quadrant, strategic assets included); Polymarket 1-mo proxy at 4% exceeds BASELINE 2% ceiling. Tier does not reach ELEVATED: no exercise designation analogous to Joint Sword/Strait Thunder, no CCG "inspection" declaration, rapid sortie decline post-JCRP. Next structural inflection: Xi–Trump White House Sep 24.

Next Structural Inflections

Xi–Trump White House Sep 24 · PORCUPINE Act House floor vote (no date) · HIMARS delivery Q4 2026 · $14B arms sale resumption (contingent on Iran munitions draw-down) · KMT/TPP drone budget freeze vote (LY joint committee) · 2027 Party Congress