HIMARS Procurement — Deadline Met
On May 29, the Legislative Yuan passed a NT$8.81 billion special defense budget in third reading — the down-payment tranche for the HIMARS procurement package. The vote cleared two days before the May 31 US-imposed deadline, eliminating the cancellation risk. The Article 84 emergency appropriation backstop was not invoked. The full NT$295B special procurement sub-budget (HIMARS, M109A7 howitzers, anti-armor drone systems, Javelin, TOW 2B) remains in Legislative Yuan deliberation; the critical near-term tranche is secured.
PORCUPINE Act — House Floor Vote Scheduled Today
The PORCUPINE Act (H.R.7146), which mandates expedited arms sales and increases Taiwan defense integration, passed HFAC 45–0 on May 13. The House floor vote is scheduled for June 8 (today). No result confirmed at time of publication. Senate companion (S.1744) passed by unanimous consent December 2025.
$14B Arms Sale — Paused; Iran War Rationale Confirmed
The $14B Taiwan arms sale (PAC-3 MSE interceptors, NASAMS) remains paused. Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao confirmed before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (~May 22) that the hold is to preserve munitions stocks for Operation Epic Fury (US-Israel campaign against Iran). This contradicts Trump's public framing of the same pause as a "negotiating chip" with Beijing — both justifications have been offered simultaneously as official rationale. Taiwan's Presidential Office states it has received "no official communication from Washington" regarding the freeze. Final authority rests with Hegseth and Rubio. The September 24 Xi-Trump White House meeting is expected to be a major decision point; the AEI assesses the arms pause functions as an implicit precondition for Xi's visit.
Trump–Lai Phone Call — Still Pending
No Trump-Lai call has occurred. Trump told reporters on June 5: "I'll always talk to him," confirming the intention remains open. China has publicly warned against any direct presidential contact. The call would be the first US-Taiwan presidential direct communication since 1979. Trump has linked it implicitly to the arms sale deliberations.
PLA Military Activity — May 26–June 8
Taiwan MND data for the reporting period:
Subsequent days showed a return to baseline:
- June 5: 7 sorties / 10 PLAN + 6 official — 5 entered SW ADIZ
- June 6: 22 sorties / 8 PLAN + 2 official — 2 crossed median into C/SW ADIZ
- June 7: 4 sorties / 9 PLAN + 7 official
- June 8: 2 sorties / 6 PLAN + 7 official
The Diplomat (June 2026) reports China conducted four "joint combat readiness patrols" in May (May 1, 6, 19, 25), with 100+ Chinese vessels deployed around the First Island Chain during May, including a Type 075 amphibious assault ship formation transiting Miyako Strait on May 22. The pattern reflects sustained gray-zone pressure and far-seas normalization beyond the Taiwan Strait proper, not a direct crisis posture.
China Coast Guard — Kinmen
Three CCG intrusions into Taiwan's restricted waters near Kinmen confirmed after May 25: May 21, May 26, and May 27 — each involving vessels remaining 2–3 hours before exiting. One additional incursion near Pratas Island occurred in May. On June 7, Taiwan's coast guard deployed vessels to respond to a Chinese coast guard "law enforcement operation" in waters east of Taiwan, which Taiwan characterized as a violation of international law.
Beijing Statements
No new major policy statements from MFA, PLA, or Xi on Taiwan between May 26 and June 8 beyond standing boilerplate ("one China," "inalienable territory," opposition to official exchanges). China continues to publicly oppose any Trump-Lai direct call.
Polymarket — Invasion Odds (June 7)
| By Jun 30, 2026 | 1% |
| By Sep 30, 2026 | 7% |
| Before end of 2026 | 6% |
| By Jun 30, 2027 | 12.5% |
| By Dec 31, 2027 | 15% |
Sep 30 market at 7% — slightly above the before-2026 figure of 6% — reflects some weight placed on post-September Xi-Trump White House meeting dynamics. Jun 30 at 1% reflects the near-term stabilizing factors of Xi's impending visit and the arms pause functioning as a managed de-escalation signal.
Assessed Invasion Probability
Assessment based on Polymarket, structural indicators, and near-term diplomatic calendar:
Other Developments
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake off the southern Philippines on June 8 triggered tsunami alerts extending to Taiwan's east coast. No reported PLA exploitation of the event. USNI Proceedings (June 2026) published analysis asserting China has achieved the capability to launch a large-scale amphibious invasion, comparing feasibility to D-Day logistics — not a government assessment but reflects shifting US military analytical framing.