Trump–Xi Summit — Day 1 (14 May, Beijing)

Bilateral talks: 2 hours 15 minutes. Xi told Trump that Taiwan is "the most important issue in China-U.S. relations" and that mishandling it would result in "clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy." Source: Beijing Foreign Ministry readout. Day 1 framework agreed: "constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability" — no Taiwan language per any available readout.

Taiwan was entirely absent from the White House Day 1 readout. US-stated agenda: trade, Iran nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz, fentanyl precursors, Chinese agricultural purchases.

Trump declined to confirm whether Taiwan was discussed after Day 1 talks (Taipei Times, 14 May). Beijing's pre-summit demand — US formulation shift from "does not support" to "opposes" Taiwan independence — has not appeared in any confirmed statement or framework text as of press time. Trump invited Xi to the White House on 24 September. Day 2 (15 May) is underway at time of publication.

$13–14B Arms Package

Package (PAC-3 MSE, NASAMS, IBCS, counter-drone systems, medium-range munitions) remains paused; no formal Congressional notification issued. Eight bipartisan senators — Shaheen (D-NH), Tillis (R-NC), Coons (D-DE), Curtis (R-UT), Duckworth (D-IL), Rosen (D-NV), Kim (D-NJ), Slotkin (D-MI) — urged Trump via letter on 11 May to advance the package before the summit. House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a trio of arms-sale bills including Taiwan support (Breaking Defense, May 2026). Post-summit announcement assessed as possible by multiple analysts.

Trump pre-summit (12 May): "President Xi would like us not to [sell arms to Taiwan], and I'll have that discussion." No arms concession or freeze confirmed in Day 1 readouts.

HIMARS May 31 Deadline

No payment confirmed made. The procedural clause inserted by the KMT/TPP-controlled legislature into the NT$780B special defense budget (passed 8 May, 59–51) requires an additional budget review before fund disbursement — departing from established practice per President Lai (9 May, Focus Taiwan). Cabinet weighing four contingency options as of 14 May (Focus Taiwan):

  1. Propose a new supplementary budget
  2. Increase the MND annual budget
  3. Draw from the MND first reserve fund
  4. Request the Cabinet second reserve fund
Deadline: 31 May 2026. Missed deadline cancels the HIMARS procurement case outright; restart required from initiation. Original deadline was 30 March; US granted unprecedented extension in late March.

PLA Activity — 12–14 May

Activity below the 7 May surge (22 sorties) but elevated around the summit opening; lowest reading on summit Day 1.

12 May: 9 sorties / 7 PLAN vessels / 1 official ship
13 May: 13 sorties / 7 PLAN vessels / 2 official ships — 9 of 13 crossed median line
14 May: 3 sorties / 6 PLAN vessels

Source: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense daily reports (MND X/@MoNDefense; ANI). No additional CCG intrusions into Kinmen restricted waters since the 5th confirmed intrusion on 8 May (~2h13m, 4 vessels, CGA shadowed and issued radio warnings in Mandarin and English).

Prediction Markets

Polymarket (13–14 May, $23.4M+ volume):

Invade before 2027: 7% (↓ from 7.5% on 11 May)
Invade by 30 Jun 2026: 2%
Invade by 30 Sep 2026: 4.5%
Invade by 30 Jun 2027: 14%

Assessed Invasion Probability

Summit Day 2 underway. Xi's rhetoric consistent with prior positions; US readout's complete omission of Taiwan is a notable asymmetry. Arms package status and HIMARS deadline remain structurally unresolved. No military build-up detected in current monitoring data.

1 month: 1–2% — summit in progress, no force build-up, Polymarket Jun 30 at 2%.
6 months: 4–6% — contingent on post-summit arms decisions, HIMARS resolution, and any language concessions confirmed from Day 2.
1 year: 7–10% — Polymarket before-2027 at 7%; US readout omission is a cautionary signal for deterrence posture.
5 years: 15–22% — structural: 2027 PLA modernization targets, US policy drift risk under continued transactional framing.

Upcoming Inflections

15 May: Summit Day 2 outcomes and joint statement (if any). 31 May: HIMARS payment deadline. 30 Jun: Talent Act Art. 28–29 activation. 24 Sep: Trump–Xi White House meeting (invited). 2027: PLA modernization target / Party Congress.