PLA Activity — Apr 23–27

Post-surge normalization continued through Apr 23–25, with a sharp spike on Apr 26 before subsiding Apr 27. All figures from ROC MND daily releases.

Apr 23: 15 sorties (14 entered SW ADIZ); 5 PLAN vessels + 1 official ship.
Apr 25: 8 sorties; 7 PLAN vessels.
Apr 26: 28 sorties (18 crossed median line; N, C, SW ADIZ); 8 PLAN vessels — highest daily sortie count since Apr 17 spike (17 sorties).
Apr 27: 7 sorties (6 entered N + SW ADIZ); 9 PLAN vessels.

Apr 26 crossed-median-line count of 18 represents the highest since Strait Thunder-2025A (Apr 1–2). No declared exercise name; Eastern Theater Command issued no public statement. No confirmed trigger event identified.

Trump–Xi Summit — Taiwan on the Agenda

The Trump–Xi summit (May 14–15, Beijing) remains on schedule. Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu stated publicly (Apr 25–26): "What we are most afraid of is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump." Beijing is expected to press Trump to oppose Taiwan independence and delay further arms sales. Analysts (The Diplomat, Apr 2026) assess China seeks incremental gains — not a breakthrough — sufficient to erode US–Taiwan security commitments over time.

Pending ~$20B US arms package (PAC-3/NASAMS + asymmetric tranche) held pending May 14–15 summit outcome. No timeline announced.

Six Arms Letters of Offer and Acceptance — Apr 22

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense confirmed (Apr 22) signing of six US Letters of Offer and Acceptance covering: HIMARS, M109A7 Paladin self-propelled howitzers, navy and army missiles, and joint production of large-caliber ammunition. Separate from the pending $20B package.

Defense Budget — Legislative Standoff

NT$1.25T special defense budget (National Security Defense and Asymmetric Warfare Capabilities Enhancement Program Special Funding Act, 2026–2033) remains in committee. Cross-party negotiations resumed. Opposition counter-proposals range NT$380B–NT$800B vs. the NT$1.25T executive request.

Apr 24: US Indo-Pacific Commander publicly urged Taiwan to pass the defense budget "swiftly."
Apr 27: AIT director urged lawmakers to approve a "comprehensive" defense budget.

Polymarket — Apr 27

Jun 30, 2026: 2% (↓ from 3%, Apr 22)
Dec 31, 2026: 7% (↓ from 8.7%, Apr 22)
Military clash before 2027: 10% (↓ from 11%, Apr 22)
Total market volume: $23.36M traded.

All three active markets ticked lower vs. Apr 22, consistent with diplomatic activity ahead of the May 14–15 summit. Apr 26 sortie spike did not drive measurable market movement.

Assessed Invasion Probability

1 month: 1–2% — Summit diplomacy active; no declared exercise; Apr 26 spike unsustained.

6 months: 4–7% — Conditional on summit outcomes. Arms package delay bullish for near-term stability; sustained median-line normalization maintains structural risk.

1 year: 6–10% — PLA capacity building continues; 2027 Party Congress watch.

5 years: 15–22% — 2027 Party Congress + potential 2028 DPP 4th presidential term as structural inflection points.