Recent PLA Military Activity

Justice Mission-2025 (Dec 29–30, 2025) — PLA's largest-scale exercise targeting Taiwan in over three years. Eastern Theater Command simulated blockade of key ports and areas, all-dimensional deterrence, and joint seizure of air/maritime superiority. PLA Rocket Force units fired artillery into Taiwan's contiguous zone, 24 nautical miles off the coast — the first publicized live-fire at that proximity.

Strait Thunder-2025A (Apr 1–2, 2025): 135 aircraft, 38 naval vessels, 12 official vessels deployed. 76 total aircraft sorties; 37 entered Taiwan's air defense response area. Exercise introduced dual-layer "Cabbage Strategy" — inner ring (militia/coast guard/navy encircles Taiwan), outer ring (harasses foreign intervention forces). Codename "2025A" implies a 2025B follow-on was planned.

40-Day Airspace Restriction (Mar 27 – May 6, 2026) — China issued Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs) reserving offshore airspace in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea with no altitude ceiling (SFC-UNL) and no announced exercise. Area spans hundreds of kilometers north of Taiwan, facing South Korea and Japan. Stanford University's SeaLight Project characterizes the restriction as "sustained operational readiness posture" rather than a discrete exercise. A US reconnaissance aircraft entered one of the restricted zones on or around Apr 7, prompting NSB assessment that China may be probing US response protocols.

NSB Director-General Tsai Ming-yen (Apr 9, 2026): PLA exercises designed to project strength domestically amid ongoing military corruption purges. CCP infiltration of Taiwan's military has shifted targeting from mid-level officers to rank-and-file enlisted personnel — assessed as an adaptation to counterintelligence pressure.

US–Taiwan Defense Signals

December 2025: Trump administration announced $10B+ arms package — 82 HIMARS launchers, 420 ATACMS missiles (~$4B), 60 self-propelled howitzers (~$4B), drones ($1B+), Javelin/TOW missiles ($700M+), Harpoon refurbishment kits ($91M). A separate $14B package (PAC-3 and NASAMS air defense systems) is pending Trump approval — the largest single Taiwan arms deal on record if concluded.

February 9, 2026: Trump signed appropriations bill including $1.4B Taiwan defense funding, with $300M designated Foreign Military Financing. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te separately authorized a $40B special defense budget (2026–2033) for indigenous air defense system "Taiwan Dome."

Taiwan Parliament (Mar 2026): Authorized signing of stalled $9B in previously approved US arms deals.

Intelligence Assessments

ODNI Annual Threat Assessment (mid-March 2026): China lacks a fixed timeline for invading Taiwan and prefers unification through non-military means. Assessment aligns with reduced PLAAF sortie frequency near Taiwan through early 2026, which analysts attribute to the PLAAF approaching its sustainable peacetime operational ceiling as reached in 2024.

PLA 2026 defense budget: ~$278B, a +7% year-on-year increase — the 31st consecutive annual increase.

Polymarket Invasion Odds (as of Apr 11, 2026)

By Jun 30, 2026: 4%  |  By Sep 30, 2026: 7%  |  By Dec 31, 2026: 9%
Volume traded on end-of-2026 market: $19.6M — substantial liquidity.

Assessed Invasion Probability

Methodology: synthesis of Polymarket market prices, ODNI assessment, PLA exercise cadence, and US deterrence posture.

Horizon Range Key Factors
1 Month 1–2% No strait-adjacent crisis; 40-day NOTAM north of Taiwan, not strait-proximate; ODNI: no fixed timeline.
6 Months 4–7% Consistent with Polymarket end-of-year price; no operational invasion indicators; US deterrence active.
1 Year 6–10% Escalating exercise scope and frequency; Strait Thunder naming convention implies further iterations; PLA budget growth sustained.
5 Years 15–22% Sustained military buildup; normalized encirclement exercises; $40B Taiwan defense spend may accelerate PRC decision calculus; PLA structural reforms ongoing.